In this past year, gold has given 70-80 per cent returns, silver over 100 per cent returns. Most international funds have yielded double digit returns. Comparatively, Sensex and Nifty have risen by just around 8 per cent till date in 2025.
You must be disappointed after being used to seeing double digit greens in your equity portfolio. You are probably also experiencing FOMO, having missed out the rally in commodities and global markets. At this juncture, you are probably contemplating to take out money from equities and invest in other trending assets which are at crazy peaks. Or you are expecting markets to fall and awaiting the perfect timing to enter the markets again.
Equity valuations, barring in a few pockets, are fully priced. Gold and silver are expensive, so are international funds. Uncertainty in the markets will continue, it always has. These revolve around –
- Will the GST benefit fully kick in and benefit consumers?
- What other antics will Trump adopt?
- How will US-India tariff deal work out and affect the Indian economy?
- Where are crude oil prices headed?
- Will gold and silver continue to make new highs?
- Will Russia-Ukraine war finally end?
How these events will pan out is anybody’s guess. There is only one certainty – that we will always have uncertainty.
Geo-political and macro led events that derail market forecasts are unpredictable. Every news item, tweet, forecast is just noise.
Hence, your investment decisions should not be contingent on the mood of the market and recent events. They should be anchored in your asset allocation, in your financial plan.
As an investor, your most reliable ally is discipline. Discipline to invest regularly, stay invested through market cycles. The market rewards patience through compounding, not precise prediction of every bottom and peak. So, stop overthinking, embrace uncertainty. Keep moderate expectations. Remember, your portfolio can go through ups and downs, but compounding will not forgive your mistake of constantly tinkering with it.